Headline inflation remained elevated in November, but core inflation softened marginally. Worries about above-target ...
Re-funding pressures are already elevated for Treasuries. So much so that we identify a 25bp concession already implicit in ...
The problem for Treasuries is a 3% primary deficit plus 3% interest rate costs exceeds the typical 4.5% GDP expansion. That ...
We forecast steeper curves as the ECB lands just below neutral and upward pressures from higher UST yields spill over to the ...
An overview of what 2025 holds for rates, including curve shapes, the spreads environment in derivatives, and the eurozone SSA space. We’ll also delve into US debt dynamics and funding pressures, and ...
For 2025, the US curve targets neutral rates plus a c.50bp spread, while the eurozone curve dips to its neutral minus a c.50bp spread Picture Chuck and Jurgen walking down the road. Chuck, who's been ...
A look at the key themes for rates in the year ahead, including a widening of SSA spreads, reforms to Dutch pension funds, steeper EUR curves, and more ...
Spreads to US rates have shot wider, and we see little reason for them to narrow any time soon. In fact, the trend suggests ...
Sovereign related and supranational issuers are not just caught up in the reassessment of sovereign risk but also face ...
Dutch pension funds are preparing for significant reforms, and given their sheer size, swap markets will be impacted.
Eurozone bond performance is now less about general trends than individual country stories where a relative reordering has ...
German Bunds remain still face structural headwinds, but there are aslo arguments for stabilisation versus risk free rates ...