“The economy is struggling to create jobs. The unemployment rate is low but it’s now showing some stress,” Zandi said, adding that the closer the rate gets to 5%, the greater the risk of a “reinforcing negative cycle” that can cause a recession.

Investors should be mining the September jobs report for signs that the economy could be close to a recession, John Hussman's firm said.

Stock investors may be in for an unsettling start to the week if doubts about the AI trade keep colliding with concerns around the upcoming release of backlogged economic data.

Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, pointed out in a note Monday that stocks and home values keep climbing while cash flow from fixed income and private credit hover at multi-decade highs.

The closely followed report was originally scheduled for release on Oct. 3, but it was shelved by the government shutdown.

Even with the recent market pullback, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) remains 12.5% higher on the year. The recent pullback represents only a -3.97% decline from the high reached on October 28.

The consumer discretionary and consumer staples sectors now rank among the S&P 500’s bottom performers for 2025 — a sign that Wall Street sees cracks in the American wallet

During the 43-day U.S. government shutdown, investors, businesses, policymakers and the Federal Reserve groped in the dark for clues about the health of the American job market